On December 31 we forecast that the gentler weather we were seeing around the New Year would end on January 6, bringing harsh weather that will not end until March. Today is January 9, and as forecast it has more or less come to pass – we had a bit of snow the night of January 6 and the cold has been deepening. The Weather Service evidently does not quite have the driver in their models, considering that each episode of snow this week is being forecast only a day or two in advance – beyond that, they don’t see it coming. There is indeed something out there they don’t know about.
Now we repeat the forecast that the weather will be anomalously cold until June – not winter until June, just a cold winter, followed by a cold spring. On or about the first week of June, temperatures should go back to normal. This is because the sun has been shaded by the second ring in the system since about December 11, and will be until about June 11.
Since we like to be careful, we may add that since we think the extra cold is due not only to the regular circulation of this ring into position to shade the sun (as it does for nine years of every eighteen) but also due to an extra density of ring thickness as a consequence of low solar activity, we also say that if the sun becomes much more active, then the ring will weaken and the harsh cold will be moderated as the ring is perturbed and weakened and dissolved. In that case, the climate would revert to patterns of 18 years ago, and would cease breaking all-time cold records.
If on the other hand that doesn’t happen, then we predict outbreaks of bubonic plague, which is what happens in cold climate periods: 6th to eight century outbreak extinguished by the onset of the warmer Climate Optimum; then bubonic plague returned with the colder weather that began approx. 1348 and troubled Europe through the Little Ice Age, and then retreated. Well, we say it’s coming back. Oh how we wish we did not believe ourselves.